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A Rule of Thumb When Betting on Caucuses

Always bet on the candidate whose supporters have been to caucus before. People always make the mistake of assuming that you can handicap caucuses the way you handicap actual elections.  (Keep that in...

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Santorum’s South Carolina “Underground” Strength

I haven’t seen anyone in the national media covering this, but… Rick Santorum’s (already formidable) grassroots organization in South Carolina is just the tip of the iceberg. Santorum has been in South...

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New Hampshire Polling

Magellan Strategies: Romney 41% Paul 21% Gingrich 12% Huntsman 12% Santorum 4% Bachmann 4% Perry 3% New Hampshire is setting up to be a big momentum state for the Romney Campaign on January 10th.  New...

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Two Factors That Will Affect the Final Iowa Numbers

Here’s a pretty good video explaining how caucuses work. There are a couple of other things to keep in mind. 1. The first line of the explanation on the video is: “If you show up here tonight…”  This...

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In Iowa, A Tale of Two Speeches

I watched with interest both “victory” speeches last night after the Iowa Caucuses — the first by Rick Santorum and the second by Mitt Romney.  As I write this a total of five votes separate the two,...

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PJMedia.com Op-Ed on the New Hampshire Yard Signs

I have a full op-ed over at PJMedia.com today building on my “Telling Signs in New Hampshire” post from last week. Here is a secret: If you want to predict a general election, count the number of...

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Newt’s Night

I really enjoyed watching Newt last night in the South Carolina debate.  He just killed it.  His back and forth with Juan Williams on minority (un)employment showed that when Newt is on, he really can...

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What Newt and Rick Have Done

For more than 20 years, Republican candidates have tacitly accepted the biases of the media and popular culture.  They’ve softened their rhetoric on education, social issues, “green energy”, the social...

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Miniter: Is Romney Actually Electable?

Forbes contributor (and friend) Richard Miniter asks the question. (By the way, be sure to check out Richard’s web site and pick up a copy of his groundbreaking book: “MASTERMIND: The Many Faces of the...

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Election Groundgame–Advantage: Unions

We all know this election is going to come down to turn-out–getting the base to show up at the polls.  President Obama has a big advantage here because the union bosses are managing Democratic Party...

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